I Can't Do it Cap'n, I Don't Have the Power.
Using Estimation as a way to collaborate and reduce risk.
📖 Story Time
If you are a Trekkie like me, you remember one of the most iconic recurring conversations between almost every ship captain and their engineer. Here’s an example:
“Scotty, when will engines be back online?”
“Three hours, Captain.”
“You have 45 minutes. That’s when the Klingons will be here.”
As a kid, I thought, “Wow, he did all that work in 45 minutes instead of three hours—he’s a superhuman!” Or, “If he did it in 45, why’d he say three hours?” Padding his estimate, no doubt.
In reality, this is one of the greatest examples of how estimation actually works.
You tell me how long something usually takes, and then we have a conversation to clarify the need.
See, in this Star Trek example, Scotty (the engineer from The Original Series) wasn’t making things up—his three-hour estimate was based on years of experience doing an engine startup that followed all the proper steps and procedures. The Captain likely trusted that under ideal circumstances, a full engine startup would take that long.
(Fun fact: The average time given by Montgomery “Scotty” Scott was 5 hours. His average time taken? 2 hours.)
But there was one problem.
The Klingons were coming.
Once Scotty was given that information, he recalibrated. He focused only on the critical steps. He knew he could skip safety tests and redundant checks because, if the engines weren’t working in 45 minutes, they wouldn’t be around to worry about long-term maintenance. The estimate sparked a conversation about trade-offs and risk.
The risk was worth taking.
And that is the key.
🪤 Estimation: A Tool for Risk Reduction, Not a Commitment Trap
Too often, teams treat estimates like contracts instead of what they really are: tools for decision-making.
When Estimates Go Horribly Wrong
And worse—some teams commit the gravest of Agile sins: converting Story Points into hours to calculate capacity.
Yes, you heard me.
Story Points. As. Hours.
Like some kind of dark alchemy, this practice turns a tool meant for relative complexity into a glorified time sheet. It assumes that every story point is equal across all work, all teams, all humans. It ignores variability, learning, and the simple fact that knowledge work is not factory work.
This is estimation at its absolute worst. Instead of reducing risk, it manufactures the illusion of certainty, leading teams straight into the very traps they were trying to avoid.
Let’s hear from some pros.
James Clear reminds us, “You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems.” Scotty’s three-hour estimate wasn’t wrong—it was based on a standard system. But when constraints changed, the system adapted.
Marty Cagan teaches that estimation isn’t about guaranteeing dates—it’s about surfacing unknowns, aligning expectations, and making trade-offs before they become problems. The best teams tackle feasibility, usability, value, and business risks early.
Teresa Torres puts it another way:
“The best product teams aren’t just building solutions—they’re continuously making better decisions.”
And that’s the real function of estimation: not just to predict the future, but to make smarter choices in the present.
Great teams estimate to clarify what matters and adapt accordingly. That’s why good leadership isn’t about demanding certainty, but about navigating uncertainty effectively.
Simon Sinek captures this perfectly:
Bad leaders believe their job is to be in charge. Good leaders believe their job is to take care of those in their charge.
When leaders turn estimates into deadlines, they aren’t reducing risk—they’re ignoring it.
🛬 Landing the Plane
Great Estimates Start Great Conversations
If Scotty’s three-hour estimate had been treated as an ironclad commitment, the Enterprise would have been doomed. Instead, the Captain and Scotty used estimation as a conversation tool.
That’s what estimates are for.
They help us clarify what’s actually needed.
They highlight trade-offs and risks.
They create alignment so we can make the best possible decisions.
The problems we solve for our customers are rarely life-or-death. Not even close. (Some would argue otherwise, but they’re just proving how ardently wrong they can be.)
The opportunities we encounter are ill-structured problems for which there is no perfect formula. Instead of absolute answers, we must clarify the need, assess the risk, and adapt—fast.
Stop treating estimates as rigid contracts. Instead, use them as a tool for learning, adapting, and making smarter decisions. Challenge your team this week: How can you use estimation to uncover risks and drive better conversations? The best teams don’t just plan—they navigate uncertainty with confidence.
Because, let’s be real.
There’s always a Klingon Bird of Prey somewhere on the horizon.
Until next time, Keep Learning. Keep Growing.
Everytime a new Tidbit is released, it becomes my new favorite!